Realized Price Theory Suggests Bitcoin Yet to Reach Cycle Peak at $123,000

Summary: Despite Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high of $123,000, market analysts argue that the current price does not indicate the end of the bull run. Insights from the Realized Price Theory suggest BTC may still have significant upside potential, possibly reaching $150,000 before topping out.

Background: Realized Price and Bitcoin’s Market Cycles

The Realized Price Theory analyzes Bitcoin’s historical price behavior at best crypto platform based on the average cost of coins moved on-chain. This metric has been used to gauge market cycles and identify potential peak points. According to crypto analyst Gert van Lagen, historical trends show Bitcoin tends to reach multiples of its realized price before forming a cycle top.

In past cycles, Bitcoin has consistently exceeded its realized price by large margins prior to peaking:

• 2011: BTC surged 8x above realized price
• 2013: Rally extended 6x above realized price
• 2017: Price topped at 5x multiple
• 2021: Hit a 4x multiple before the $69,000 peak

Current Market Implications

According to data from Glassnode, Bitcoin’s realized price currently stands at approximately $51,000. The current BTC price of $123,000 suggests a 2x multiple from this metric. Based on historical behavior, the bull market may not conclude until BTC reaches approximately 3x its realized price—potentially around $150,000.

While each successive cycle has shown diminishing returns in terms of multiples above the realized price, van Lagen notes that the trend is still intact. The theory indicates that Bitcoin has yet to achieve its peak valuation within this bull cycle.

Market Reactions and Investor Sentiment

Despite recent sell-offs halting Bitcoin’s momentum, many investors remain cautiously optimistic. The Realized Price Theory provides a data-backed framework that suggests further upside remains. Analysts point to this theory as a reason to temper bearish outlooks, reinforcing confidence in a continued rally.

Bitcoin Price Update

After peaking at $123,000, Bitcoin has experienced slight downward pressure. Volatility remains high amid profit-taking and market consolidation. However, if the pattern outlined by previous cycles holds, Bitcoin may still climb toward $150,000 before entering its next major correction.