Is the Bitcoin Bull Market Over? Analyst Warns of 30-Day Profit Window

Summary: Following Bitcoin’s recent all-time highs, prominent crypto trader Philakone has sounded the alarm, suggesting the bull market may be nearing its end. Calling on historical halving trends, he forecasts less than a month for investors to take profits before a possible downturn begins.

Bitcoin Halving Trend Indicates Cycle Peak

Crypto trader Philakone recently told his 170,000 followers on X (formerly Twitter) that the Bitcoin bull market may already be over, citing historical data from previous halving cycles. According to his analysis, the duration between past Bitcoin halvings and subsequent market peaks provides a reliable indicator for cycle tops.

In the 2016-2017 cycle, Bitcoin’s bull market lasted 545 days after the halving. The 2020-2021 cycle saw a similar 525-day span. Currently, over 506 days have passed since the most recent halving event, with Bitcoin already setting new all-time highs. Philakone warns that this puts the market in a critical window, suggesting that investors have fewer than 30 days remaining to capitalize on gains before a potential downturn. He declared that the bull market is now “100% over.”

Deviations from the 4-Year Cycle Raise Questions

Historically, the Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Theory has provided a framework for predicting market movements, aligning halvings with peaks. However, some analysts argue this cycle may no longer be relevant, due in part to macroeconomic shifts and new investment dynamics.

The introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs has injected significant liquidity earlier in the market cycle, driving Bitcoin’s price to early highs and diverging from normal altcoin behavior. Some, like analyst antiprosynthesis.eth, believe the 4-year cycle is a myth, and that market cycles are better explained by changes in global liquidity rather than blockchain events.

Market Impact and Reactions

If the halving-based trend holds, investors may see a shift in sentiment and increased volatility over the coming month. Calls for taking profits and cautious portfolio rebalancing are growing louder, especially in the absence of a traditional altcoin season.

Macro conditions, regulatory developments, and institutional inflows post-ETF approval remain key variables shaping the market trajectory. Nevertheless, the consensus among some analysts is that the historic pattern may soon repeat—leading to a prolonged bear market.

Bitcoin Price Update

Bitcoin recently hit an all-time high in July but has since shown signs of slowing momentum. Currently, market sentiment is mixed as investors weigh whether the bullish trend can sustain or if the predicted cycle top will trigger a broader correction.