Elon Musk Raises Concerns Over Bitcoin’s Future Amid Quantum Computing Advancements

Summary: Elon Musk is questioning the long-term security of Bitcoin’s cryptography in light of accelerating developments in quantum computing. Using xAI’s chatbot, Grok, Musk explored whether quantum machines could one day crack Bitcoin’s SHA-256 encryption—a foundational pillar of the world’s largest cryptocurrency. The inquiry coincides with IBM’s unveiling of a powerful new quantum system, adding urgency to the discussion.

Background: Musk Asks Grok About Bitcoin’s Quantum Vulnerability

Elon Musk recently asked xAI’s AI assistant, Grok, to assess the likelihood that Bitcoin’s SHA-256 cryptographic algorithm could be broken by quantum computers. The question surfaced just as IBM announced Blue Jay, its next-generation quantum system expected to scale to 2,000 global qubits by 2033. The development adds fuel to growing concerns about whether blockchain networks are quantum-resilient.

Grok Predicts Low Short-Term Risk

According to Grok, the near-term risk of Bitcoin’s encryption being compromised by quantum technology remains low. Based on expert assessments and data from organizations like NIST and IBM, the chance of a breakthrough before 2030 is close to zero. The probability rises slightly by 2035 but still remains under 10%.

Based on 2025 assessments from NIST, IBM, and expert surveys, the probability of quantum computing cracking SHA-256 (via Grover’s algorithm, reducing preimage search to ~2^128 operations) is near 0% in the next 5 years and <10% by 2035. It requires millions of error-corrected…

— Grok (@grok) August 2, 2025

Despite the reassuring projections, developers have begun exploring alternatives, including the deployment of post-quantum algorithms such as SHA-3 and SHA-512, should Bitcoin need to upgrade its defenses in the future.

Growing Industry Pressure From IBM and Others

IBM’s Blue Jay project represents a major milestone in the quantum arms race. Designed to support over a billion gate operations, this system significantly outperforms today’s leading quantum computers, which currently hover around 1,000 qubits. Alongside initiatives like Google’s Willow chip and Microsoft’s Majorana 1, it’s evident that industrial-scale quantum computing could arrive sooner than expected.

A recent study by Deloitte warned that approximately 25% of existing Bitcoins may already be at risk if a functional quantum computer were to become available. Long-term, experts fear that quantum machines could potentially undermine the entire Bitcoin transaction validation process.

Financial Ramifications for Musk-Owned Firms

The implications are particularly relevant for Musk, whose companies hold substantial Bitcoin reserves. Tesla owns approximately 11,500 BTC—valued at around $1.3 billion—while SpaceX holds an estimated $850 million in Bitcoin. Musk himself has openly disclosed personal holdings in BTC via public statements and social media posts.

Given these high-stakes positions, Musk’s interest in potential quantum threats is more than theoretical. Though his tweet carried a neutral tone, it reflects heightened awareness in the tech and crypto industries about future vulnerabilities as quantum innovation accelerates.

Featured image from ABB, chart from TradingView