Forget Bitcoin’s Halving — The ‘Business Cycle’ Is The Real Market Killer: Analyst
Bitcoin surged 4% in the past 24 hours, trading near $110,000 as optimism builds over easing US–China tensions. While traders eye $112,000 as the next resistance, analyst Willy Woo warns that macroeconomic risks, not halving cycles, could define the next bear market.
Macro Risks Could Shape Next Downturn
On-chain analyst Willy Woo has raised concerns that Bitcoin’s next downturn will not follow the typical four-year halving cycle, but instead will be driven by broader macroeconomic forces — specifically, a traditional business cycle contraction.
Woo noted that past Bitcoin cycles have been shaped by two overlapping forces: the cryptocurrency’s halving schedule and changes in M2 money supply. However, with global liquidity now dominating market direction, he suggests the next downturn could echo the macroeconomic slumps of 2001 and 2008 — both of which occurred before crypto’s existence.
We had two 4y cycles superimposed
Now it’s only one; global M2 liquidity
Next bear IMO will be defined by another cycle people forget about → the business cycle
The last biz cycle downturns that really took hold was 2008 and 2001, from before crypto markets were invented pic.twitter.com/inHqQH7zWx— Willy Woo (@woonomic) October 20, 2025
Historical Recessions Offer a Guide
Woo’s thesis draws comparisons to past economic crises. During the 2001 dot-com crash, U.S. equities lost about 50% over two years. In 2008, following widespread credit collapses, the S&P 500 dropped approximately 56%.
These events exposed systemic weaknesses and prompted massive liquidity withdrawals — conditions Woo says crypto markets have yet to face. In a similar downturn, he warns, Bitcoin’s performance may align more with risk assets like tech stocks than with defensive havens like gold.
Liquidity and Recession Signals
While there is currently no definitive signal for a global recession, analysts are watching indicators tracked by the National Bureau of Economic Research, such as employment, industrial output, and consumer spending.
Trade tariffs between the US and China, which slowed growth in early 2025, remain a potential drag on GDP into 2026. According to Woo and others, any further erosion in global liquidity could rapidly shift investor appetite for high-risk assets like Bitcoin.
$BTC has reclaimed the $109,000–$110,000 support zone.
The next crucial level to reclaim is $112,000, which could push Bitcoin higher.
With US–China trade tensions easing, I think BTC could rally more from here. pic.twitter.com/D8VNses1ix— Ted (@TedPillows) October 20, 2025
Price Update and Market Sentiment
Bitcoin is currently trading just under $110,000 after gaining 4% over the past day. Analyst Ted Pillows believes the critical resistance level to monitor is $112,000. A sustained break above that could trigger further bullish momentum.
Still, uncertainties remain. If a full-scale recession materializes and investor liquidity shrinks, Bitcoin may respond more like a speculative asset than a safe haven — a shift that would test long-term narratives about its role in diversified portfolios.
Conclusion: Bitcoin Faces an Unfamiliar Test
According to Woo, Bitcoin’s resilience will be truly tested not by its internal market mechanics but by how it performs under strained global economic conditions. As institutional exposure increases, this phase could determine whether BTC is viewed as a high-risk tech asset or a reliable hedge in traditional macro downturns.
Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView
