Bitcoin Tariff-Driven Market Crash May Not Be The Real Bottom — Analyst
Despite Bitcoin’s sharp drop following the U.S. tariff announcement on China, analysts suggest the bottom may not yet be in. On-chain indicators show mixed investor sentiment as BTC’s recovery stalls near $111,000.
Background: Trump Tariffs Trigger Crypto Market Shakeup
The October 10 tariff announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump sent shockwaves across the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin (BTC) tumbled to approximately $102,000 — a level not seen since August. The broader crypto market lost roughly $800 billion in market capitalization, with $19.2 billion in liquidated positions, marking one of the largest single-day sell-offs in the sector’s history.
Although BTC has rebounded modestly and is currently hovering around $111,110, the market’s stability could be deceptive, according to on-chain analysis.
Analyst: Key Metrics Signal Bitcoin Bottom Not Yet Confirmed
In a recent QuickTake post on CryptoQuant, XWIN Research Japan outlined reasons why the current Bitcoin price level may not represent a true market bottom. The research emphasizes the Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric, which tracks overall investor profitability, as a key indicator.
Historically, major market bottoms in March 2020 and November 2022 were characterized by NUPL falling below zero—indicating that most holders were at a net loss. These capitulation events preceded long-term bullish trends. Currently, NUPL is around 0.5, suggesting a large portion of investors remain in profit, and thus, a deeper correction may still be on the horizon.
Volatility Lull Could Precede Further Downside
To analyze Bitcoin’s recent stagnant price movement, XWIN Research examined the Bitcoin Long Liquidations and Open Interest metrics. These indicators confirm that previous market dumps have cleared excess leverage, a necessary condition for market resets. Despite this, history shows that true bottoms materialize only after sustained fear and exit activity from the market.
Similar patterns during the 2018–2019 and 2022 crashes showed that primary liquidations were only the beginning. The real market bottoms formed months later, often when investor sentiment hit extreme lows. Accordingly, analysts caution against assuming the worst is over, as current market calm could be a precursor to further downturns.
Bitcoin Price Update
At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $111,110, showing minimal daily movement and reflecting uncertainty in market momentum. Current conditions suggest a fragile equilibrium, with sentiment hanging on key support and on-chain behaviors.
While near-term calm gives hope to some bulls, historical and on-chain data imply a cautious outlook. Unless investor sentiment deteriorates further and NUPL nears zero, suggesting capitulation, a sustained rally may remain out of reach.
