Bitcoin Risks Testing Key Support as Bullish Momentum Weakens

Summary: Bitcoin’s price is showing signs of hesitation amid weakening investor sentiment and geopolitical uncertainty, with the flagship cryptocurrency now at risk of revisiting support levels around $102,000–$103,000.

Market Background

Bitcoin’s recent trading behavior suggests a market in transition. The asset has mostly moved sideways over the past few days, with only brief and unsustainable rallies above the $105,000 level. This stagnation is unfolding amid broader market unease, partly attributed to the ongoing unrest in the Middle East, which has weighed on investor confidence across risk assets.

On-Chain Sentiment Shows Bearish Shift

On June 14, on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. highlighted a notable downturn in investor sentiment. Using the Bitcoin Advanced Sentiment Index — an on-chain metric that gauges market optimism by analyzing the balance of bullish and bearish positioning — Adler revealed that sentiment had dropped below the key 50% threshold to around 46%.

This move into bearish territory reflects growing caution among traders. According to Adler, the Index had peaked above 80% earlier this month, but has since been in steady decline. Historically, values above 60–70% signal strong bullish momentum that often precedes a rally, while metrics below 50% suggest fear and market indecision — or in extreme cases, oversold conditions that may hint at a market bottom.

Key Price Levels and Potential Scenarios

Adler emphasized that for Bitcoin’s bullish trend to resume, the Sentiment Index would need to rebound above the 60-65% level. Such a recovery would likely require an uptick in net taker volume and a rise in open interest — both of which were notably absent during Bitcoin’s recent move from $103,000 to $105,000.

If sentiment fails to recover meaningfully, Bitcoin may test its next key support zone, estimated between $102,000 and $103,000. Adler cautioned that this support remains probabilistic and may not hold if bearish pressure intensifies.

Price Update

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $105,419, showing virtually no movement in the last 24 hours. The lack of momentum and declining sentiment suggest that traders are exercising caution as the market searches for a clearer directional signal.