Bitcoin LTH Profitability Outpaces STHs: Is A New Bullish Phase About To Commence?

A notable shift in Bitcoin profitability dynamics is signaling possible bullish momentum. Long-term holders (LTHs) now outperform short-term holders (STHs), suggesting early signs of a new cycle. Meanwhile, U.S.-based institutions and whales continue to accumulate BTC despite recent price corrections.

SOPR Ratio Shift: Long-Term Holders Regain Edge

On-chain crypto analyst PelinayPA has highlighted a meaningful development in Bitcoin investor behavior via the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). This metric evaluates whether coins are being sold at a profit or loss and, when segmented between long-term holders (LTHs) and short-term holders (STHs), provides insight into market structure.

Currently, the LTH/STH SOPR ratio is trending upward, indicating growing profitability for long-term holders. According to a CryptoQuant QuickTake post, such a trend often precedes sustainable bullish phases in Bitcoin’s price cycle.

Historically, similar patterns were observed during the 2020–2021 bull market and the recovery period that followed the 2022–2024 bear market. The SOPR ratio then mirrors changing investor sentiment and often precedes broader price recoveries. At present, this recovery in long-term profitability may signal the early stages of a new bullish cycle, with a potential upside target near the $120,000 level.

Institutional Demand Drives Continued Accumulation

Amid these on-chain signals, whale and institutional activity further supports the bullish outlook. Market analyst Darkfost notes that U.S.-based institutions continue to show strong Bitcoin demand, as reflected in a positive Coinbase Premium Index. This indicator, which compares U.S. and international pricing, has remained above zero since April, highlighting consistent accumulation by large entities.

Price Update

Bitcoin is currently trading at $115,668, reflecting a modest weekly loss of 0.35%. The recent price action includes a brief attempt to rally above $116,000 earlier this week, followed by a swift correction. Despite the short-term volatility, strengthened long-term holder profitability and growing institutional interest suggest underlying support for further gains in the medium term.