Are Halvings Just Hype? Analyst Claims Bitcoin’s Market Timing Is Different

Summary: Bitcoin’s price cycles may be influenced more by adoption trends and institutional liquidity than the halving schedule, according to new analysis. As on-chain signals point to a late-cycle market, debate intensifies around the relevance of the halving narrative.

Background: Cycles Beyond Halvings

On-chain analyst James Checkmate challenges the traditional view that Bitcoin’s market cycles revolve around quadrennial halvings. Instead, he proposes three distinct phases of Bitcoin’s evolution: the adoption cycle (2011–2018), adolescence cycle (2018–2022), and a current maturity cycle beginning in 2022.

Checkmate argues these transitions are more aligned with market structure and adoption milestones rather than the scheduled reductions in block rewards. He suggests Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory mirrors that of gold, potentially extending current trends beyond the typical halving expectations.

In my opinion, Bitcoin has experienced three cycles, and they are not anchored around the halvings. They are anchored around the trends in adoption and market structure, with the 2017 top and 2022 bottom being the transition points.

— _Checkmate (@_Checkmatey_) August 26, 2025

Traditional Halving Narrative Persists

Despite such contrarian views, the halving theory remains a favored market model. Historically, Bitcoin has peaked one year after its halving events in 2013, 2017, and 2021. The assumption is that supply shocks—triggered by reduced mining rewards—combine with bullish demand to push prices higher.

This tidy model persists for its simplicity and predictive power, with market observers pointing to 2025 as another potential peak year following the most recent halving.

Liquidity and Institutional Flows Take Center Stage

Recent insights emphasize the growing role of liquidity and institutional capital. Analysts suggest these forces now drive the market cycles more than the calendar-bound halving dates. Indicators such as risk sentiment, fund inflows, and macroeconomic cycles could better explain price behavior.

Some market watchers now believe that unless 2025 delivers positive returns, the current cycle could be deemed incomplete. According to this view, the traditional four-year rhythm may be outdated.

On-Chain Metrics Flash Caution

Data platform Glassnode issued a market alert on August 20, indicating signs of profit-taking and reduced accumulation. Their analysis suggests Bitcoin may be entering a late-cycle phase, with long-term holders already realizing substantial profits—second only to the 2016–17 bull market.

$BTC long-term holders have already realized more profit this cycle than in all but one prior cycle (2016–17), highlighting elevated sell-side pressure. Taken alongside other signals, this suggests the market has entered a late phase of the cycle.

— glassnode (@glassnode) August 26, 2025

Conclusion: Strategic Divergence Remains

Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior is under renewed scrutiny. While on-chain analysts suggest shifting paradigms driven by adoption and liquidity, many investors still rely on the post-halving rally pattern. Both camps cite historical data, but differ on the key market drivers—be it timing models or broader macro forces.

With 2025 approaching and the market at a potential crossroads, traders and institutions alike are watching closely to adjust portfolio strategies accordingly.

Featured image from Equiti, charts from TradingView and Bitcoinist