Bitcoin UTXO Model Signals Buyer Return as Selling Pressure Eases

Summary: Bitcoin is showing signs of stabilization following a turbulent week driven by geopolitical tensions. A key on-chain metric suggests that selling pressure has significantly declined, paving the way for buyers to re-enter the market at lower levels.

Geopolitical Turbulence Triggers Volatility

Bitcoin experienced heightened volatility over the past few days as geopolitical developments in the Middle East unsettled markets. The cryptocurrency briefly dropped below the critical $100,000 level amid reports of U.S. military action against Iran, triggering widespread investor panic. However, a rapid sentiment shift occurred following news of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, sending BTC soaring back above $105,000.

UTXO Model Shows Shift Toward Accumulation

According to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s recent recovery aligns with a marked behavioral shift among investors. The UTXO Block Profit/Loss Count Ratio Model, which measures realized profits and losses, spiked to 34,000 earlier this month when BTC hit its $112,000 high—indicating significant profit-taking. Now, that figure has plunged to just 216 points, suggesting that selling pressure has diminished and more transactions are occurring at a loss.

With most profitable sellers having exited, the market may be entering a phase of renewed accumulation. This transition signals growing long-term conviction and supports the emerging bullish case, particularly as BTC holds above the psychological $100,000 threshold.

Technical Levels Define Short-Term Outlook

BTC has staged a swift rebound from recent lows, climbing over 7% in fewer than 25 hours to reclaim the $105,000 mark. The price action has recovered above the critical $103,600 level—an area that has acted as both support and resistance since March. Additionally, Bitcoin has recaptured its 50-day simple moving average, which reinforces the short-term bullish momentum.

The recovery also followed a successful test of the 100-day simple moving average near $96,000, a zone historically favored by buyers during corrective moves. Despite the encouraging rebound, BTC has yet to break above the $109,300 resistance level, which has capped every major rally since early June.

Outlook: Consolidation Continues, But Foundation Appears Stronger

The steep decline in the UTXO profit-taking metric and increasing buying interest at support suggest a more stable foundation is forming. However, BTC remains within a wide consolidation pattern. A decisive close above $109,300 is required to confirm a new bullish trend and revive momentum toward the all-time high of $112,000.

Until then, traders can expect consolidation to persist, with macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical developments continuing to dictate short-term sentiment.