Bitcoin Shows Surprising Resilience Amid Iran-Israel Tensions, Outperforms Wall Street in Volatility

Summary: Despite escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East, Bitcoin held steady this week with lower volatility than major U.S. equity indices. Analysts view this as a sign of maturing market behavior and growing investor confidence.

Bitcoin Volatility Falls Below S&P 500 and Nasdaq

According to Bitwise Europe’s Head of Research André Dragosch, Bitcoin’s 60-day realized volatility stood at 27–28% as of June 23—below the S&P 500’s 30% and Nasdaq 100’s 35%. This marks a notable shift for the historically volatile asset, which often reacts strongly to global uncertainty.

Dragosch highlighted in a recent post that even amid rising geopolitical tensions, including the Iran-Israel conflict, Bitcoin maintained a steadier pattern than U.S. equities. This trend may indicate that crypto investors are no longer spooked by every negative headline.

Resilience Amid Middle East Conflict

Bitcoin briefly dipped by 7% over the weekend following reports of U.S. airstrikes in Iran, sending the asset below $100,000. However, it quickly stabilized—unlike during past crises such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, when volatility surged to over 60%.

The reduced reaction suggests a shift in sentiment. Instead of panic selling, long-term holders are standing firm.

Long-Term Holders Lock Up Supply

Data from Glassnode shows that long-term Bitcoin holders now account for a record 14.53 million BTC on a 30-day average—about 70% of the maximum 21 million supply. This HODLing behavior reduces circulating supply and limits short-term price shocks.

Notably, around 30% of the circulating supply is concentrated in just 216 large entities, including ETFs, exchanges, custodians, and corporate treasuries. With so much Bitcoin sitting idle, market liquidity narrows, further dampening volatility.

Institutional Confidence Fuels Bullish Outlook

Crypto veterans such as BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and OSL’s Eugene Cheung interpret the current market calm as a foundation for further gains. Both believe Bitcoin could cross and hold above the $100,000 mark as institutional capital inflows accelerate amidst global monetary easing.

Some analysts are even forecasting price levels above $150,000 by the end of 2025, citing reduced exchange supply and ongoing investor demand as key factors driving the long-term bullish thesis.

Market Implications and Outlook

Bitcoin’s declining volatility suggests it is evolving into a more mature asset class, potentially appealing to conservative investors seeking stability. Still, the market is not immune to sudden moves—especially if major holders liquidate large positions.

For now, Bitcoin’s steadier performance amid geopolitical turmoil may signal a pivotal transition toward mainstream financial acceptance and away from its volatile, speculative roots.

Featured image: Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images; Chart: TradingView